It only hurts if you sell
UPDATE: President Bush on Friday signed legislation that increased the amount of savings insured by the FDIC in an account from $100,000 to $250,000 (until December 31, 2009).
With the stock market gyrations the last few days, several
people asked me if I was in trouble because of the stock market. My answer was
simple, "No, because I don't have to sell any investments."
The recent roller-coaster highlights an important aspect of
personal finance: the stock market really isn't rational.
Financial institutions (mutual fund management companies,
401(k) administrators, insurance companies, and so on) initiate most trading in
the market. You'd think these organizations would be smart enough to remain
calm, but that's clearly not the case when the market drops 700-plus points one
day and then gains 350 points back the next. The people who started buying at
the bottom of the big drop made some fast money, but the people selling when
the market was 690 points down look like chumps.
It turns out individual investors often act smarter than
big financial companies. Spoken more plainly in the movie, Men in Black, "A
person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."
If you need a little moral support, remember to not let
your emotions control your investments. "Buy low, sell high" is the sure-fire
way to make money in the stock market. Yet, fear and greed drive many investors
to buy high and sell low. People buy when prices are skyrocketing even though
the prices are sky-high already. That usually turns into a freefall accompanying
by screaming and flailing when the rocket burns the last of its fuel. Fear can
make investors sell investments when the market has plummeted. If the market
has already dropped, it's too late to sell; you should be buying more.
Ignoring the emotions of the herd is the way to go when the
entire market reacts to events. Handling an individual stock, mutual fund, or
other investment is a different story. You have to dig deeper into what's going
on and decide whether the price changes are warranted. A stock might plummet
because a story just broke that the CFO was creatively accounting. In that
case, getting out is sensible because the shares could end up worthless. If an
individual stock jumps, it could be due to a lucrative new contract.
As long as you don't need the money in your investment
accounts right away, you don't have to worry about their values bouncing around
day to day. A retirement portfolio is supposed to pay for retirement. If
stopping work and starting to withdraw from your retirement accounts is several
years away (and could last 30 years or more), you can afford to wait for the
market to recover from its current malaise. Over the long term, your portfolio
will get back to and grow higher than where it was a year or two ago.
Money you need in the next couple of years shouldn't be in
stocks for the same reason. You don't want to sell stocks when they're down, so
near-term cash should be in more stable investments: certificates of deposit or
savings accounts where the only thing that changes is the interest rate the
bank pays.
With some banks going under, the $100,000 limit for
FDIC-insured (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) deposits is crucial. If
you have more than $100,000 in savings, congratulations! But, limit each
savings account to $100,000 $250,000. If the bank goes under, you get your balance from the
FDIC.
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