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How do you like them Apples? Apple's Earnings Rock!


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“Apple beats Street in holiday quarter; shares soar” (AP)

“Apple trounces Wall Street estimates” (CNN Money)

“Apple Understates The Insanely Great” (Forbes)



In a very tough environment, where consumers (supposedly) aren’t spending and high-end products don’t get bought, Apple took industry analysts’ projections out to the woodshed and gave them a good old fashioned whupping (see detailed projections chart put together by Andy Zaks HERE).

How much of a whupping? Well, on average, analysts were projecting for Apple a profit of $1.39 per share on $9.75 billion in sales, and the company instead delivered $1.78 per share and $10.2 billion in sales, respectively.

But that doesn't tell the real story since it does not take into account Apple's adjusted earnings when you factor out a quirky decision (by Apple) to spread revenue recognition on iPhone and Apple TV sales over two years, based on subscription-accounting revenue recognition. Add those numbers in, and the real sales are actually $11.8 billion -- $1.6B HIGHER!

All of this dropped an additional $3.6 billion in cash to Apple’s coffers during the quarter, and the company now sits with a $28B war chest.

Why should you care? As noted in my recent post, ‘Punishing the Wizard: On Apple and Steve Jobs,’ most people give analysts and business media way too much credit for parsing the salient details that separate the wheat from the chaff in the investing universe.

This is compounded by the fact that we all look for the simple story, meaning that the complexities of different revenue recognition across product lines, relativity to industry peers and aggregate versus relative growth metrics across product lines, are thus lost.

Net it out, and the one company that actually seems to have a differentiated strategy, instead, looks like a laggard, and not surprisingly, ends up trading at a discount to its so-called peers.

On a personal level, I am simply left wondering, "Who looks better against the template that Apple has put together; namely, differentiated products, diverse revenue lines, a deep product pipeline, stellar management team, huge profits, high operating margins, massive cash reserves and ungodly cashflow?"

After all, shouldn’t any analysis of how Apple's strategy is working fit within the larger context of who's doing better at delivering technical, marketing and cash generating wizardry?

(Disclosure: I sold Me.com to Apple last year, so I have a vested interest in being right on my analysis.)

Other notes of interest from the earnings call:

1. 22.7M iPods sold in the quarter: this is a jaw-dropping number considering how the device is a logical step path into iPod touch (a subset of the overall iPod sales numbers) and iPhone (a different unit count bucket), and increasingly part of one unified ecosystem.

2. Apple will continue to invest in Apple TV: The company noted that it has received a tremendous uptick in sales performance, thanks in part to iTunes rentals, and that unit sales, though unpublished, are three times higher than they were last year. While they continue to refer to the device as a "hobby," I think that the tea leaves are clear on this one (also, see my posts on the Apple-centered media center universe: 'Apple, TV and the Smart Connected Living Room' and 'What it Means to be a Social Media Center: Boxee, Apple TV and Square Connect').

3. Apple sent a clear warning shot to competitors that it is going on offense to protect its intellectual property, something that I blogged about in 'Upward Mobility, Land Grabs and the iPhone Universe.' Palm Pre, which is the first device to incorporate multi-touch functionality, feels like a lawsuit in the offing.

Related Posts of Note:

  1. Holy Sh-t! Apple's Halo Effect: how Apple has turned gravity into its friend
  2. Ringing Up Apple's Earnings Call: analysis of last quarter's earnings call
  3. iPhone 2.0 - What it Means to be Mobile: a detailed summary of my experience to date with the iPhone 2.0 platform
  4. Innovation, Inevitability and Why R&D is So Hard

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Comments (5)
Read More Entries by Mark Sigal.

5 Comments

boy uzatma said:

My six year old is begging for my PW to get access to App Store. That tells you how much of a winner Apple has when the super young gravitate and can work through with zero guidance.

Mark Sigal said:

Thanks, Al. I will have to check out. Appreciate the kudos on the site. Also, if you really want to be cool, get your grandkids an iPod touch. It blows my mind to see my 3/6 year olds with zero training, playing music, video, viewing photos, playing games. My six year old is begging for my PW to get access to App Store. That tells you how much of a winner Apple has when the super young gravitate and can work through with zero guidance.

AL McLaughlin said:

Hi Mark,
Thanks for your feedback and open statement per your profile on stock recommendations.

I'm an older aged fellow who understands what you mean by Apple being tangible and understandable. I have operated macs from pretty far back _ mac IIci was my first machine and I know river of progression a bit.

If you want to appear as the coolest Dad or Grandpa to the younger music lovers may I suggest you visit and test sound enhancing items(for your own mac or pc) at the SRS Labs web site. My Kids in their late 20's think I'm pretty cool as I found one way to totally enhance their music when in iTunes, and their iPods and on their Home sound systems... Just had to share one great new site that few know about... So Thanks. Your Oreilly site is excellent = one of the finest sites per stuff that interests me.
AL

Mark Sigal said:

Hi Al,

Thanks for the note. I am the last person to recommend specific stocks. I happen to be fanatical about the lines of business that Apple is in, their integrated approach and execution focus around simplicity and user experience. Their business is very tangible, understandable and they are not a one trick pony. I can't say the same about SRS, good or bad.

Cheers,

Mark

AL McLaughlin said:

Thanks, I acknowledge your article as information worthy of me posting a comment. Your statement below is one I wish others might comment upon with other companies that they feel look better against the template that Apple has put together.

I was wondering if you had any thoughts about SRS Labs, Inc. This is not a company with a template related to your statement yet in my travels I see great potential in SRS. Any opinions you might have = I appreciate your knowlege.

Your statement:
On a personal level, I am simply left wondering, "Who looks better against the template that Apple has put together; namely, differentiated products, diverse revenue lines, a deep product pipeline, stellar management team, huge profits, high operating margins, massive cash reserves and ungodly cashflow?"

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