Okay, I admit it. I am really passionate about the consumer space. It's interesting to me to imagine how much gravitational pull AOL once had, and what they have now. To ponder how Yahoo becomes the next AOL. Of course, I am always asking myself where Microsoft settles in online. On different days, I can argue that the browser will fade away or that it will become more ubiquitous. Is Google unstoppable?
In contemplating the above, and particularly how the "old" web (of web pages and web sites) morphs into a new and improved Internet, there are four general trends I plan on writing about in this blog. I definitely don't come from the perspectives I will put forth from on high, so challenge my assumptions and pick them apart, for this space is really just a straw man for further discussion.
"Grope. Ship the idea. Fix. Iterate." That's my motto, and that's what I'll attempt to do in subsequent blog posts relative to the following:
1. More intelligent search: Once upon a time, search was undifferentiated, and finding the information you were looking for was a function of plugging in the right search terms. But search is evolving, and becoming more intelligent. In the process, both the types of information distinctly indexed and supported (think: web sites and web content, local business listings, news stories, products and comparison data) and the applications of what you can actually "do" with the information returned will evolve meaningfully.
2. Software as service, and service as software: Once, there were standalone applications. Then there was client-server. Then the web browser became the ubiquitous client, and everything else seemed so 1993. But, as concepts like integration, persistency, reliability, context, community and mobility become of greater importance, expect to see Internet clients evolve, muddying the question of when software is merely a service and when a service is integrally bound to software. I'll attempt to storyboard some different application scenarios, and the role of the different frameworks and standards in facilitating them, and play the devil's advocate in terms of when web services make sense for the provider and when they don't.
3. Channel me, or my personal online truth: A recent study by MasterCard International asserts that nearly one-quarter of the online population is "Confident Core Users." This group has been online a number of years, is comfortable buying products online, has broadband connectivity and is utility seeking in their utilization of the Internet. As the emphasis of consumers shifts away from technology for its own sake, and towards online productivity, new models and new applications will need to emerge that enable users to better manage their recurring digital lifestyle activities, topics of interest, and the people, products and businesses that they encounter along the way. Among the open questions on this one is where does all of the information accumulated actually "live" (think: IM sessions, email, IM, RSS feeds, blogs, web content, listings) and what is the front end or front ends for tying it all together? And finally, how does wireless and devices in the smart, connected living room factor into the equation?
4. Online spaces: The concept of the Internet as an online "space" is nothing new, touching both specific types of applications (think: blogging, chat, email) and specific types of activities (think: dating, marketplaces, education). What's changing is the structure, boundaries, reach and transparency of such spaces -- from clear purpose and clear boundaries (think: eBay, Amazon, Craigslist) to virtual boundaries that are defined in real time and provide transparent linkages to six degrees of separation (think: Friendster, Tribe.net). Is this trend the next ICQ, is it another Hotmail, or is it destined to be the next PointCast?
A final note aside. In writing about the above trends, where practical, I will speak not only to the "how" and "why" sides of the equation (i.e., how such and such is built and why a given approach is compelling), but what's the business model to support it and the various and sundry human factors that stand in the way of the scenario playing out. Should you be interested in such things, I have a set of constructs that I follow in sniffing all of this out called "Core Concepts Learned in The Internet Economy," which is basically a bunch of analogs borne of firsthand experience in trying to reconcile both the strategy and tactics of building compelling products and a vibrant company. As a participant in this blog, you are welcome to download it.
What's your take on where the consumer Internet is headed?
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Comments (2)
Read More Entries by Mark Sigal.
Grope and Ship
Good points, and I definitely agree with your sentiments about customer irritation with 1.0 products that are buggy or take the customer a step backwards (my words). Anyone who uses Microsoft products knows this one all too well.
At the same time, let's say you are not building the next rev of a word processor (i.e., a well formed application with clear requirements, use cases, pre-existing installed bases, etc). Instead, you are building an application that doesn't exist or one that really hasn't been perfected from the standpoint of its user base. Past examples of this are Amazon and eBay, in trying to deliver a unified, functional and logistically satisfying ecommerce and marketplace experience where predecessor efforts were even more lacking. Current examples of this are some of the consumer facing efforts with web services. One line of thought is only deliver what you feel you've nailed in terms of functionality, customer needs, etc. Another is that your are embracing a murky paradox, where the bar is sufficiently low that as long as you take customers forward, without disrupting their pre-existing workflows, the product has a chance to succeed. Clearly, it depends on the product you are building, the willingness/enthusiasm of the audience to be part of the process, how effectively you set expectations with consumers, etc. At my last company, we always grappled with this one wrt standards. Do you wait until the standard is perfected and ratified or do you solve the problem and map to standards as they stabilize and equally important, gain market traction?
For me, the question comes down to, "Are you inventing the wheel or iterating it?" If it's the former, and enough people need wheels, they will deal with "some" pain and suffering to gain the productivity leap. If it's the latter, then the customer is understandably going less understanding.
Somewhat orthogonal to the topic, but a great book for thinking on this one is, "The Innovator's Dilemma," by Clayton Christensen:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0066620694/qid=/sr=/onthepatmarsi-20
A great article on the topic is "The Laws of Software Process," by Phillip Armour (couldn't find article online but has new book coming out).
Grope and Ship
Not to pick on you for just one comment but Grope, Ship the idea, Fix, Iterate is a flawed model. I know you will say that shipping product without serious flaws (bugs) is assumed but implicit in your concept is shipping incomplete product. Customers are getting fed up with this model. A product that does not fit the customer's needs is as bad as a bug as it becomes either a time sync (for them to make it work the way they actually need it to work)or it becomes abandoned(cost). I like your other ideas but not this one.