The Relentless NBT (Next Big Thang)

An old lottery advertisement chimed, "You've got to be in it to win it." Whereas that never inspired me to donate to the cause, a similar adage applies to software, news, publishing, biotech and other fast-moving industries.



For example, the last two years have seen an unrelenting deluge of huge news stories, from the Clinton impeachment trial, to the 2000 presidential election dispute, to the Sept 11th terrorist attacks. News organizations exist because someone is betting that there will be some big (and usually bad) news tomorrow, six months from now, etc. To be in a position to cover these stories, the infrastructure had to be in place ahead of time.



Likewise, in the software industry, the plans for the NBT (Next Big Thang) are laid years in advance. How many times have you heard about a technology in its nascent stage only to realize its importance two or three years later when it is a household word? Although I despise Microsoft as much as your average ubergeek, they've both anticipated and driven the next NBT. Their Web Services initiative, however flawed technically or socially, is pretty much right on the money. Even they wouldn't have the market power to pull it off if it weren't the right thing at the right time. They've been planning (some say plotting) it for years, but it is not too late to learn .Net and position yourself as an early adopter and eventual expert.



On a personal and professional level, you'll have to keep feelers out for what might be the NBT and whether it is worth learning. Subscribe to a magazine or two in your area of interest; skim the technology news from the New York Times (available in a free daily email); attend a few trade shows or conferences each year; monitor various NASDAQ stocks (which often correlate with the importance of certain technologies). I'm not suggesting being on the bleeding edge, as you can waste a lot of time on things that never gain traction. But participate in newsgroups and mailing lists, try to get in on beta programs, or publish a blog on your favorite topic. By positioning yourself as a knowledgeable industry insider, you might find people (such as acquisition editors from publishers) contacting you about the NBT.



There's a saying in real estate that the best time to buy a house is five years ago. Position yourself now to be in on the next Next Big Thang.



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Is Web Services the Next Big Thang?