P2P Networks Becoming Accepted by the Mainstream

Napster shut down its service to ramp up for their upcoming subscription launch, but I doubt anybody noticed besides the media. It's a pretty common fact that the only reason Napster had as many users as it had the past month was because the chat rooms were places to talk about and find new ways of file sharing outside of Napster.

As I've said many times before, the movie and recording industries haven't provided an easy way for the public to get their product online, so in a sense they are training the public to get into a habit of piracy. Napster became big news well over a year ago, yet we still haven't seen a product for consumers to use to obtain digital media files. Because of this, now file-sharing has become more than just a few thousand individuals "in the know", as we're seeing a continued influx of users on alternative file-sharing networks.

How mainstream have P2P networks gotten? Gnutella and Morpheus users combine for an average of 340,000 users at any given time, more than twice that which Napster had averaged during their highest peak in February. AudioGalaxy has been downloaded by almost 15 million people. We're seeing that "The Napster Phenomenon" has just changed form, as mainstream users who aren't necessarily familiar with concepts such as networking and protocols have replaced Napster with one of the dozen or so alternatives to file-sharing which now include easy-to-use interfaces. Heck, my father-in-law uses Gnutella, and it can take him a while to figure out how to print out a document.

We may be seeing that while shutting down Napster may have slowed the river, the flood was immenent. I've tried most (if not all) of the alternatives out there (you can read my review of some of them here). Most are generally pretty good, but sometimes they can be a hassle. Failed downloads and sketchy connectivity make you wish there were an easier way. The mainstream audience has accepted these downfalls. Will they continue to do so in favor of paying for easily accessible content, but content in which they can't have full control over (i.e. you won't be able to burn a cd from a downloaded track using the proposed music services)?

As the three subscription services launch this summer, users will still be deprived of a "total access/one service" subscription, as MusicNet, pressplay, and Napster do not have each record labels material on their services. Disenchantment with subscription services that lack access to "everything" might only push more of the mainstream towards alternative file sharing networks. We're seeing an influx in average file-size being traded for the past three months, which points to an increase in video files being traded across these networks. So my question is this: what are subscription services offering that is better than what we are already getting for free? If enough people break the law by infringing upon copyrights, should it become legal or be viewed as morally acceptable?

Boy oh boy am I looking forward to the O'Reilly P2P Conference in September......