Asia Continues to be Facebook's Strongest Growth Region

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 0

With Facebook topping 330 million active users over the past week, the company's strongest growth region continues to be Asia. Over the last 12 weeks, Facebook added close to 17M active users in Asia alone. Since my previous post, the share of active users from Asia grew by 2% (to 13.5% of all users), and roughly 1 in 7 users now come from the region. With a market penetration under 2%, Facebook is poised to add many more users in Asia (and Africa).

Compared to the U.S., the proportion of Facebook users in their teens (13-17) or in the 18-25 age group are much higher in Asia:

As was the case in other parts of the world, expect the share of users 45 and older to climb as Facebook becomes more mainstream in Asia. Growth was strong across all age groups in Asia over the last 12 weeks, particularly among teens (+90%) and the 18-25 age group (+60%).

In other regions, notably North America, Europe, the Middle East, and South America, growth in the 18-25 age bracket, lagged behind users 45 and older.

In closing I want to highlight countries (within several regions) where Facebook has been growing rapidly:

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There are Over a Million People Actively Using Facebook Right Now

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 7

A little over a week ago Facebook reached a major milestone: 300 million active users. The fastest-growth region continues to be Asia, but growth in other overseas regions such as the Americas and Africa have also been strong. Currently reaching only 1% of potential users in Asia and Africa, Facebook has barely scratched the surface in both regions:

Growth in the U.S. remains fastest among those age 45 and older, and the share of those users is higher in the U.S. than overseas. In other regions recent growth tended to be more evenly divided among age groups. One notable exception has been the teen group in Asia, which grew over 80% in the last 12 weeks.

Of the 300 million users, how many are actively using Facebook right now? (For the rest of this post active means not just logged in, but actually engaged.) By treating the previous question as a Fermi problem^†, I can probably derive a decent estimate. First, I assume that the average fraction of people actively using Facebook at any moment, equals the fraction of time an average Facebook user is active on the site^††. Without access to any usage stats, I'll throw out the following guesstimate: a typical Facebook user spends 4 hours per month (or 48 per year) actively using the site.

Depending on how accurate you want to be, there are 1.6 to 6 million people actively using Facebook right now. If the average Facebook user spends considerably more than 4 hours per month (actively) using the site, the estimate would be much higher than a 1.6 million. I do have an escape clause: in classic Fermi problems, being within a factor of 10 is considered acceptable.

(†) Increasingly popular in the business world, Fermi problems have long been staples in Physics (and Math) departments.
(††) In other words, if the average Facebook user spends 1% of her time actively using the site, on average 1% of all Facebook users are actively using the site at any given moment.

Four short links: 30 July 2009

Brooklyn Museum, Early Release, Toy Chest, Open Science

by Nat Torkington | @gnat | comments: 0

1. iPhone App v1.3 Released -- revealing glimpse into how third-party apps (such as this iPhone app, built on the Brooklyn Museum's API) reflect on the institution providing the API. Brooklyn Museum has dealt with this sensitively and intelligently, a model to all. As always, I want to marry the Brooklyn Museum and raise a posse of online apps.
2. Embrace the Chaos -- I can never be told "release early, release often" enough. When to release? As soon as you've got something that'll be useful to other people.
3. Toy Chest -- "Toy Chest" collects online or downloadable software tools/thinking toys that humanities students and others without programming skills (but with basic computer and Internet literacy) can use to create interesting projects. (via Simon Willison)
4. What, Exactly, is Open Science? - In general, we’re moving towards an era of greater transparency in all of these topics (methodology, data, communication, and collaboration). The problems we face in gaining widespread support for Open Science are really about incentives and sustainability. How can we design or modify the scientific reward systems to make these four activities the natural state of affairs for scientists? Right now, there are some clear disincentives to participating in these activities. (via Glyn Moody)

Facebook Adds Million of Users in Asia

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 1

Since my previous post on Facebook users by country, the company has grown rapidly in Asia. Over the last 12 weeks, Facebook grew 90% in Asia going from 11.4 to 21.7 million active users. With a Market Penetration of only 0.6% in Asia, Facebook has barely scratched the surface in the region.

The company also gained 11.3M users in Europe (up 19%) and 14.7M users in North America (up 21%) over the last 12 weeks. On a year-over-year basis, Facebook grew 194% (adding close to 150 million active users worldwide) from Jun/2008 to Jun/2009.

For more details, you can view regional numbers below:

Active Facebook Users By Country & Region: June 2007

View more Microsoft Word documents from oreillymedia.

2 Years Later, the Facebook App Platform is Still Thriving

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 8

In a few weeks, the Facebook application platform will mark its second anniversary. While it garnered lots of press coverage in the months after it launched, the arrival of the iTunes app store shifted attention away from Facebook's vibrant ecosystem. The media glow is understandable: among other things, the younger iTunes platform is adding apps at a much faster rate than Facebook or Myspace.

Games comprise a sizable chunk of app revenues in all three platforms and recent stories suggest that 2009 has been a great year for developers. The substantial revenue generated by popular Facebook (and Myspace) apps has been the subject of articles in VentureBeat, TechCrunch, and Inside Facebook. There have also been recent estimates for the revenue generated by iPhone apps (see here and here). Game developers in particular are benefiting from having a multitude of platforms: Games are the largest iTunes category, and the second largest category in both Facebook and Myspace. In addition, 4 of the top 10 most successful Facebook app providers are Game developers.

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Importance of Innovation in Finance & BarCampBank

by Jesse Robbins | @jesserobbins | comments: 2

“Progress is not the mere correction of evils. Progress is the constant replacing of the best there is with something still better.” -Edward Filene

Two years ago, when we were organizing the first BarCampBank in the US, many people found it hard to believe that banks & credit unions could a place for meaningful grassroots innovation. Even crazier was the idea of organizing an unconference to begin bringing open source, transparency, identity, and community into the very closed world of banking & finance.

Since then the BarCampBank idea has turned into a movement. There have been over 14 events all over the world, and many of the ideas generated are beginning to turn into action.

To me, the global financial system is a platform that exists to “create more value than it captures”. Tim explained this in his Work on Stuff that Matters post, saying:

“A bank that loans money to a small business sees that business grow, perhaps borrow more money, hire employees who make deposits and take out loans, and so on. The power of this cycle to lift people out of poverty has been demonstrated by microfinance institutions like the Grameen Bank. Grameen is clearly focused on creating more value than they capture; not so the like of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, or WaMu, or many of the other failed financial institutions involved in the current financial meltdown.”

There has never been a more important time to bring meaningful innovation into the financial system, and there has never been more opportunity for our community to make it happen.

The next event is occurring this weekend (April 25-26, 2009) on Treasure Island in San Francisco.

After that, the following events are planned:

• BarCampBankVegas is set for May 2, 2009.
• BarCampBankCharleston2 is set for June 13, 2009
• BarCampBankGermany is set for October 23-25, 2009

Active Facebook Users By Country

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 24

Since I last posted numbers on Facebook's user base six week ago, the company has added close to 20 million active users.

I've had a few requests for detailed numbers by country so I quickly assembled an update for each of the regions shown above.

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Facebook is Growing Fast in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 13

With Facebook recently passing 175 million users, I decided to update my analysis of its user base. The weekly growth in number of users has remained steady, with the last 5 weeks being exceptionally strong: Facebook added over 25 million users since early February. The share of U.S. users inched up slightly from 30% to 31%.

The company added users in all regions but compared to my analysis in early December, growth accelerated in Asia and North America. Note that the number of users in Asia remains small compared to other social networks in the region. The number of users from Canada still exceeds the total in all of Asia (still under 10 million). Within Asia, the fastest-growing countries over the last 12 weeks were Indonesia (up 169%) and the Philippines (up 119%). (For reasons as to how Facebook has expanded in specific countries, I encourage Radar readers to share their thoughts in the comments.)

Europe and South America both experienced double-digit growth rates over the last 12 weeks, but compared to last December, Facebook grew much slower in both regions. A third of all users (33%) now come from Europe. Among the smaller countries in Europe, Facebook grew fastest in the Czech Republic (up 144%) and Slovakia (up 137%). Among the larger European countries, growth was fastest in Italy (up 71%), Spain (up 66%), and Germany (up 48%).

With such a large user base, the company continues to attract application developers to its platform. The number of active Facebook apps continues to grow but at a much slower rate, roughly 2% per week over the last 12 weeks. (For this analysis, I define a Facebook app to be active if it had at least 100 active users.) The graph below compares the relative size of the Facebook, Myspace, and iPhone application platforms:

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Facebook in 2010: no longer a walled garden

by David Recordon | @daveman692 | comments: 18

A lot of what I've been working on the past two years has been built on the assumption that the model that social networks use today will fundamentally change. Social networks have largely been built on the premise of being walled gardens in such a way that users can't communicate or share content or friends across networks; put simply this is what keeps a Facebook user from being able to send a message to a MySpace user. This is the same model that destroyed AOL, CompuServe and Prodigy's ISP businesses when normal people chose the Internet itself versus their thoughtfully curated walled gardens.

Over the past year we've seen an uptick in the infrastructure, development tools and projects designed to build the social web (n.b. I define the social web as something that is inherently decentralized, just like the web itself). On top of that, MySpace has gone from being off of most developer's radars to the most open social network in existence. With MySpace I'm able to use my account to sign into other sites via OpenID, share my activity using Activity Streams, build applications using OpenSocial, interact with their APIs using OAuth and access APIs that not only allow the creation of new content within MySpace's garden but also extract data from it.

While Facebook has made significant contributions to open source projects, ranging from some of their own to memcached, they've largely been absent from much of this progress around building the social web (remember, I define it as being inherently decentralized). Instead, like Microsoft they have willfully ignored many industry efforts in favor of their own proprietary development platforms. To their credit, they've been one of the most innovative social networks over the past two years, pushing the boundaries of what's been thought of as possible with features like social tagging in photos, Newsfeed, Platform, Beacon, integrated chat and Connect.

Two weeks ago this changed. Facebook joined the board of the OpenID Foundation, released two-way APIs around status, notes, pictures and videos, hosted a user experience summit focused on OpenID and released a blog commenting widget powered by Connect. Since then they've also talked about how they wish to support the Activity Streams project and have reiterated their commitment to the sort openness that we've been promoting as key pieces of the social web.

I know what you're thinking: "talk is cheap." True, Digg said they'd support OpenID three years ago and we've seen...or wait, no we haven't! I wish I had something concrete to point at to show that my next argument isn't crazy, but I don't. All that I can point to is the change I'm seeing when interacting with Facebook and their interactions with developers this year compared to the past.

My prediction is that by the end of the year Facebook will become the most open social network on the social web. I believe that not only have they now found business value in doing so, but also truly believe that the next phase of their mission, "to give people the power to share and make the world more open and connected" requires that they do so. This means that anyone building a business based on the notion that Facebook will remain a walled garden and won't adapt - as was true with traditional media when blogging came about - will have their world turned upside down this year.

Disagree if you like, but my second argument is that if Facebook does not seriously embrace these ideas this year that their current position of dominance will be usurped. I'm not saying that Facebook will go away, that all of my friends will leave, that it will become irrelevant or that tens of thousands of developers will move on overnight. This year, there is an amazing opportunity to find and define a proper balance between traditional walled-garden social networks and completely decentralized efforts like the DiSo Project.

Data Center Power Efficiency

by Jesse Robbins | @jesserobbins | comments: 8

James Hamilton is one of the smartest and most accomplished engineers I know. He now leads Microsoft's Data Center Futures Team, and has been pushing the opportunities in data center efficiency and internet scale services both inside & outside Microsoft. His most recent post explores misconceptions about the Cost of Power in Large-Scale Data Centers:

I’m not sure how many times I’ve read or been told that power is the number one cost in a modern mega-data center, but it has been a frequent refrain. And, like many stories that get told and retold, there is an element of truth to the it. Power is absolutely the fastest growing operational costs of a high-scale service. Except for server hardware costs, power and costs functionally related to power usually do dominate.

However, it turns out that power alone itself isn’t anywhere close to the most significant a cost. Let’s look at this more deeply. If you amortize power distribution and cooling systems infrastructure over 15 years and amortize server costs over 3 years, you can get a fair comparative picture of how server costs compare to infrastructure (power distribution and cooling). But how to compare the capital costs of server, and power and cooling infrastructure with that monthly bill for power?

The approach I took is to convert everything into a monthly charge. [...]

Apple's restrictions mean more jailbreaking & Android adoption

by Jesse Robbins | @jesserobbins | comments: 2

When Apple announced the iPhone SDK last year I said:

[...] Jobs makes it clear that the platform won't be completely open. While he says that this is to balance the benefits of an open platform with user security protection, it's unclear where Apple will draw those lines. Will there be a Skype client? Third-party media apps?

It would have been better if Apple had announced [the details] when it released the iPhone. I'm hopeful that Apple will now embrace the existing iPhone developer community, and won't use “security” as a way to keep potential competitors off its platform.

Almost a year later Apple is using their control of the App store to block innovative developers from reaching their customers. The most recent example is the "Podcaster" iPhone app which allows you to download and manage podcasts on the iPhone directly, without having to boot your computer to sync in iTunes.

According to the developer, Apple blocked this application from the App store, saying:

Since Podcaster assists in the distribution of podcasts, it duplicates the functionality of the Podcast section of iTunes.

If you want to build a platform, you have to compete fairly with the developers on your platform (if you must to compete at all). By restricting developers, Apple is stifling innovation and their long-term growth. Frustrated customers and developers who "think different" are Jailbreaking their iPhones and getting excited about Google's Android.

Remember: Successful platforms create more value than they capture.

Update: Apple is apparently responding to the backlash by prohibiting discussion of the Apple's rejection letters with an NDA.

Facebook Growth By Country and the Slowdown in App Usage

by Ben Lorica | @dliman | comments: 18

With the Facebook Developers conference slated for later this week, I thought it would be a good time to give a brief update of a previous post on Facebook demographics. What follows are recently published number of users by country and region, along with growth rates for select regions and countries. Over the last four weeks, the fastest growing regions were South America, Central America and the Carribean:

While Facebook grew double-digits in Asia it did so from a relatively small base (approx. 3.7 million users), in a region with hundreds of millions of potential users. Of the countries in South and Central America, Chile is worth highlighting (up 67.5% from four weeks ago). As several Radar readers predicted, Facebook has grown steadily in Chile where it now has over 2.2 million users (around 14% of the population). In other parts of the Americas, Hi5 and Orkut remain the largest social networks:

Looking closely at the top 30 countries, a few European countries have grown more than ten percent over the last four weeks (France, Spain, Germany, Italy), with France having the most number of users (approx. 2.5 million). Skyrock remains the largest social network in France. Norway saw a decline but is still home to more than a million Facebook users. We will continue to track how Facebook is doing vis-à-vis other leading regional social web sites and whether their disputes with other companies affect their growth rates.

As far as recent trends in the Facebook app platform (the subject of this week's f8 conference), we have detailed reports (here and here) on the subject. At the last Graphing Social Patterns conference, Roger Magoulas provided highlights of our most recent findings. The number of published apps continues to grow steadily (to over 32K) but total usage remains flat. Besides the fact that the top 10% of apps account for 98% of total usage, aspiring Facebook app developers should know that only about 6% of apps average at least 500 active users per day:

(For specific tips on how to launch and build successful Facebook apps, consult this O'Reilly Radar Report.) Finally, as I noted in a previous post, the most popular applications on the Myspace platform continue to account for slightly less users than their Facebook counterparts.

Service Monitoring Dashboards are mandatory for production services!

by Jesse Robbins | @jesserobbins | comments: 6

Google App Engine went down earlier today. GAE is still a developer preview release, and currently lacks a public monitoring dashboard. Unfortunately this means that many people either found out from their app and/or admin consoles being unavailable or from Mike Arrington's post on TechCrunch.

Google has a strong Web Operations culture, and there are numerous internal monitoring tools in use across the company, along with a smaller set available to customers. It's suprising that Google launched a developer platform without providing something beyond an email group, although they are by no means the first to do so.

Service Monitoring Dashboards are mandatory for production services and platforms!

• If you launch a platform that people pay you money for, you need to have a real time service dashboard. Ideally this should be decoupled from the rest of your infrastructure.
• Don't rely on platforms that lack service monitoring dashboards for production.

Many companies are initially reluctant to provide this kind of monitoring to the public, and only do so in reaction to an outage. However, it seems that every company that offers such a dashboard uses it as a source of competitive advantage.

The best example of this is trust.salesforce.com which they launched after series of outages in 2006. Amazon (eventually) launched a status dashboard for AWS, and added RSS feeds for specific services which I think is pretty cool.

Javier Soltero at Hyperic points out

1. The reports of service outages arrive long after anyone who depends on the services can possibly do anything to mitigate their effect.
2. The services themselves seem incapable of providing any visibility into the circumstances that might lead to future outages.

[...]Even TechCrunch points out that the Google Apps blog doesn’t even mention the outage. Other clouds rely on blogs such as this one, this one, or maybe even this one (from our good friends at Mosso). These are all places where outages can be discussed, but not the right means for people to find out whether it their application that crashed, or the cloud that it depends on.

(Updated:Niall Kennedy pointed out that GAE is still a preview release, and I agree that my original wording was wrong. My intent is to emphasize the importance of providing a public service dashboard and so I've edited accordingly.)