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Maturing Fields
We seem to be on a plateau, software-wise, at the moment. The next versions of both Windows and OS X are bugfix/performance releases (yes, I know it's actually more complex than that!) with a much lesser emphasis on new features than previous versions.
It may just be my perception, but this seems to be the case across a lot of the software (and hardware) fields. It certainly seems to be the case with photography - we've had our little revolution in the workflow field with Aperture and then LightRoom, then a flurry of plug-ins and non-destructive editing with Aperture 2 and LightRoom 2, but where do things go from here?
My guess is that we'll be in 'evolutionary not revolutionary' releases for awhile, much like Photoshop has been for some time, with new releases adding new features rather than new ways of working. As previously mentioned, we can extrapolate from some of the new features added to iPhoto recently, but I can't see a space for a big change in how Aperture helps us work - but then, that's why I'm writing about Aperture and didn't come up with it in the first place... ;-)
One thing that I think is going to change the way that photographs are handled in the future (at least one the web) is geotagging. We can already see the precursors, with Fraser Speirs' Exposure/DarkSlide where your iPhone can view Flickr images taken close to your location, and also Microsoft's Photosynth making use of image locations.
Where things will go from here I don't know, but it should be an interesting journey...
Ian
It would be a travesty for Apple if Aperture's updates were merely evolutionary. Both Lightroom and Capture NX allow sophisticated local adjustments of RAW images which Apple has yet to attempt. While Apple permits roundtipping and use of plugins, these are not able to make use of RAW data in a steppable, non-destructive fashion (like NX and to an extent with LR). Apple is ^behind^ and needs to catch up significantly here. Mere evolution won't cut it.
That's partly a question of semantics - as far as I'm concerned, local non-destructive editing is an evolutionary step as it's a logical progression from global non-destructive edits. In any case, local edits were present in LightZone before LightRoom (or even Aperture) were even announced.
Non-destructive edits plus integrated DAM was a revolutionary change. What I'm talking about is paradigm shifts on that kind of level.
Ian